“China Could Have Up to 100,000 Electric Air Taxis and Personal Flying Vehicles Over its Cities by 2030″
This rather staggering headline first appeared in Chinadaily.com.cn one week ago on Wednesday, November 27th. Given the gravity of the claim, it was surprisingly a short article, just six paragraphs long.
It begins, “China could potentially see 100,000 electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) serve as family vehicles or air taxis by 2030, according to a report from the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance.”
And goes on, “The alliance anticipates that within the next two to three years, China’s major cities will complete air transportation networks and supporting ground service facilities for low-altitude vehicles.”
The report also highlights the expanding role of drones in logistics, agriculture, emergency rescue, urban management and tourism, saying they will be “ubiquitous.”
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/27/WS6746fbaea310f1265a1cfee6.html
The media trail always surprises. It wasn’t the specialist eVTOL or drone outlets that followed up on this story, but the UK’s lowbrow tabloid, The Sun.
Written by Juliana Cruz Lima, the media outlet’s foreign news reporter, the headline was the expected PREPARE FOR TAKEOFF. The article leads, “China is racing to transform its cities with 100,000 flying cars hovering through the skies in just six years, a new report has said. Futuristic vehicles are set to revolutionise urban transportation – serving as family cars air taxis and even delivery vans.”
(Credit: The Sun)
Amidst an initial plethora of advertising and other story links, which the article lucratively winds itself around, The Sun alongside science-fiction style images, explains, “The report by the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance reveals that air traffic networks and ground facilities for flying vehicles will be largely completed in the next two to three years. This infrastructure will enable the mass production and commercialisation of Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles – or eVTOLs – by 2026.” Adding, “While current eVTOLs cost a hefty 10 million RMB (£1 million), prices are expected to drop significantly by 2030.”
The Sun then interviews Eve Air Mobility CEO, Johann Bordais, who is quoted, “We have the biggest pre-order book in the industry, with a total of 2,900 vehicles pre-sold, but the roadblock will be ecosystem readiness, not technology.”
Also, there are mentions of EHang and Xpeng Aeroht as well as a Vertical Aerospace video. At the bottom of this feature, the media outlet offers its readers a column entitled “What are eVTOLs?”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/31983552/china-plans-flying-cars-taxis
It took another four days before a few specialist websites covered the story including urbanairmobilitynews.com. While on December 3rd, the esteemed Robb Report took the China Daily initial story and transformed it into a feature, focusing on China-based eVTOL companies.
It questions: “Whether China can meet the aggressive goals of 100,000 flying electric vehicles by 2030 remains to be seen. But it is the first national government to target eVTOLs as a growth industry, which could eventually mean state investments across multiple areas, as well as expedited regulations that would fast-track their use.”
https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/chinas-evtol-makers-flying-cars-1236109502
Xpeng X2 eVTOL flies over City of Guangzhou (Credit: Xpeng Aeroht)
So, who exactly are the Low Altitude Economic Alliance? Established in August and initiated by over 100 enterprises, the Alliance focuses on advancing low-altitude airspace applications and planning the future of the industry.
It admits in the Robb Report that China’s eVTOL industry moving forward “has no mature business model to learn from abroad.” A trail-blazer it must be then, mistakes and all, with aims “to create detailed guidelines for cities to develop commercial strategies for implementation.”
The overview of the original news story is somewhat chilling. China is not just ahead of the global eVTOL industry, but by a country mile. Are we talking of five years ahead of the West, perhaps, even ten? The country is even creating new industry lingo like: “The Low Altitude Economy.”
Aside from China, many believe the Middle East will lead the way as Archer, Joby, EHang, AutoFlight and others PREPARE FOR TAKEOFF from 2026. Meanwhile, Europe offers scant interest in the eVTOL industry, recently ditching Lilium with both Volocopter and Vertical Aerospace looking decidedly vulnerable for the long-haul. While the infrastructure is so much in its infancy, single vertiports, occasionally dotted around America by 2030, for example, is the best, perhaps, that can be hoped for.
It seems China is holding all the cards and will be fully autonomous, while the West begins plonking pilots into its aircraft. Then, two realities may occur. China with 100,000 electric air taxis and personal flying vehicles whizzing over its cities by 2030, whilst the West may be lucky to have 100 or for that matter none, if the infrastructure is not constructed.
Time to get a jolly good move on.
(Top image: Credit – www.teachflight.com)
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